Tesla’s Robotaxis & Robotics: They’ll End Life As We Know It in 2 Years (Feat. Farzad Mesbahi)
Farzad Mesbahi on the Inevitability of the Great Disruption
It’s almost impossible to imagine: Within two years, transportation will be completely revolutionized. We will experience a mini singularity.
Watch my full conversation with Farzad Mesbahi below to dive deeper into Tesla’s robotics future.
The Coming Transportation Revolution
Self-driving autonomous vehicles will be ubiquitous in large cities. Here are just a few transformations we’ll see:
Uber and Lyft will be felled, and the million drivers who drive for them will need to find other work.
Trucking will be fully automated, and the nearly 3.5 million truck drivers will also need to find other work.
Transportation costs will fall dramatically (because the main travel cost is the driver).
There will be little need for parking lots.
Individuals will “rent out” their Teslas as robotaxis when they’re not using them, thus pushing the costs of transportation further down.
Cities could see reduced traffic congestion as optimized routing takes over.
A Great Disruption will occur. The way we think about engineering cities, and even the need for cities, will change. Eventually, all transportation will be automated. And once we pass critical mass, travel speeds will increase as human error will be a relic from a different age. The implications of that are even more difficult to imagine.
Key Takeaway from Farzad: “Automation isn’t just about efficiency, it’s about reshaping economies at scale.”
Why Tesla Leads the Charge
And there is only one company poised to do this: Tesla. I’m not offering investment advice, nor is my guest Farzad. Reid and I, however, are all in on Tesla. We both see the unfolding of the revolution as inevitable, and no company other than Tesla can produce at scale. And that scale is: 1,000,000 robotaxis a year.
Beyond Cars: Robotics and Societal Impacts
And that’s just the revolution in self-driving vehicles. Wait until you hear what Farzad Mesbahi has to say about robotics and what follows from that: deflation, mass unemployment, UBI, etc.
One insight from the Interview: Farzad predicts that humanoid robots like Optimus will accelerate deflationary trends, making goods cheaper but challenging job markets.
Final Thoughts on the Conversation
I thoroughly enjoyed our conversation. Discussions of trans, Muslim immigration, the death of the West, the decline of civilization, political assassinations, and such take a toll on me. So, it’s refreshing to switch gears (pun intended) and discuss some optimistic futurism with a genuine expert.
Finally, I really liked Farzad. I found him to be sincere, thoughtful, funny, and extremely knowledgeable. I’m looking forward to dinners with him when I’m back in Austin.
What do you think about mass automation? Exciting? Concerning? Share in the comments below.
Comments from Farzad:
My hope is that everyone who watches the conversation between Peter and me comes away with the following questions:
1. A fundamental disruption is happening in our world through AI—not just in the digital space, but in the physical space as well. Self-driving cars at scale are inevitable. It’s most likely that Tesla will be the biggest driver of this disruption. This disruption will bring massive deflation in transportation costs but will dislocate millions of drivers over time, starting with cab drivers and extending to truck drivers. What does this mean in the long term?
2. The same disruption impacting transportation will extend to humanoid robots. These robots will use the same foundation—cameras and super-advanced AI chips—to understand, learn, and interact with the physical world. Over time, these humanoid robots will be produced in the millions of units per year. These robots will be able to work at an equivalent of $3 per hour compared to the average wage in the US, which is around $15. This will bring massive deflation in goods and services but will also dislocate the largest labor market in the world—physical labor—which is worth about $40 trillion annually. What does this mean in the long term?
3. All these changes will be extremely disruptive. Those with access to capital will be able to buy, access, and deploy these technologies at a much greater rate than those who don’t. Will this widen the wealth gap? Will it create more jobs than it destroys? What will it do to society? Is our government ready to handle the inevitable disruption that will arise from these technologies?
Peter - With regards to AI replacing human beings, the heads of these companies aren't very smart after all. Lets say that in 5 years 50% of the human work force is replaced with AI. Who do these tech billionaires think their customers are going to be once enough humans are unemployed? If this replacement ever reaches more than half then I imagine we're all screwed. A functioning society that is dependent on trade as our modern society is, can not function unless human beings are employed either by another or are self-employed. A free market system of capitalism does not work unless humans are both being paid and able to buy products and services and these pro-AI tech idiots are going to destroy that over short term profits.
If AI is doing the work in place of the human so no human is being paid then eventually there will be no customers. This can only work if AI is treated a tool used by human to do more in less time, not to be replaced by it. This isn't like past changes where humans could simply learn a new more advanced skill. When computing replaced many manual based jobs those who previously worked those jobs could learn how to code so to speak. There is nothing to learn in this scenario. Even trade jobs aren't safe b/c the robots Elon is making are being designed to be 1st stage humanoid like creatures on Mars which means they will have to perform the same labor functions done by those in the trades today.
Because these greedy shorty cited business tycoons being unable to resist the urge of short term profits despite the longer term consequences, the government will have to step in and limit how much AI can be used to replace humans. If they don't then this is what will inevitably playout b/c we no longer have and have not hade for a few generations, leaders in business with any kind of morals or ethics. Even the greedy barons of history understood they had to have a customer to sell to.
1) Tech companies begin wide spread layoffs as AI replaces jobs previously held by humans. Unemployment reaches record highs
2) B2B companies for tech business begin replacing humans with AI now that the tech industry has proven it can be done.
3) After a few years other industries begin seeking replacing as many of the human workforce with AI as possible. Unemployment skyrockets as every business seeks to hire AI;s and only lay off humans.
4) Initially all the companies replacing humans with AI have record quarters but then something happens and within a year or 2 they see massive downturns in sales. After some investigating they realize that now that most/all industries are replacing humans with AI the possible customer base has dwindled down to next to nothing. It finally hits them, "Oops, there's no one left to sell our products & services too b/c we replaced every possible customer with a piece of software code that is not a customer".
These idiots will go head strong into this ignoring all the red flags b/c they have no morals, no ethics and care only about short term profits. This has been an issue with the corporate executive world for many years; where the CEO cares only about padding their upcoming onus regardless of longer term consequences., ty hey do this b/c most are constantly company hopping versus staying at one place for 20+ years and taking a vested interest in the companies long term welfare.
It's very likely that if not stopped it will be the corporate executive class who takes down America. We will need the government to make it VERY painful for any company to replace a human with AI. I hate getting government involved but I see no other way to escape the collapse these fools will bring if left to their own devices.
Lots of great comments here. Thanks. FWIW, Reid and I are all in on Tesla.