Trump's Economic Strategy: Genius or Chaos?
Spectrum Street Epistemology
In NYC, our Spectrum Street Epistemology was focused on the US economy. We zeroed in on a specific, bold claim: “Trump’s economic policies will benefit the U.S. by the end of 2026.” Our three participants spanned the spectrum.
We kicked off with Trump’s tariffs—a lightning rod for market volatility, especially after his recent tariff pause sent stocks swinging. Are these tariffs a masterstroke or a misstep? The discussion spiraled into debt, hyperinflation risks, trade deficits, China’s role, deregulation, and tax cuts.
It was a whirlwind of insights. So, where’s the U.S. headed? Share your take on Trump’s economic gamble and what it means for our future.
Trump conflates trade deficits with tariffs, resulting in the ridiculous figures on the chart he presented.
Switzerland does not imposes a 61 percent tariff on American goods; nor does Vietnam impose a 90 percent tariff rate against our products. These figures were calculated using a formula based upon America’s existing trade deficit in goods, which is a completely different matter.
Suppose our trade in goods with the rest of the rest of the world were totally in balance, just as Trump wishes. Under those circumstances, the US would naturally have trade surpluses with some countries and trade deficits with others, with net result being a wash.
But according to Trump’s framework, countries with which we have a trade surplus would have a new 10 percent tariff, while those countries with which we have a deficit would have much larger tariffs imposed, and those tariffs would be increased if they imposed retaliatory tariffs.
Apparently, the goal of Trump’s tariffs would sharply reduce, even eliminate, all of our trade with the rest of the world.
Economic growth requires individual freedom, including freedom of production and trade. It requires zero controls on prices and wages. It requires sound money, and zero theft of income by tax-thievery in all of its forms, including tariffs--legalized theft, but theft nonetheless. It requires people being masters and controllers of their government, not the other way around.
Peter, Here is an excellent substack by Eric Zuesse. It is long but very worth reading.
https://ericzuesse.substack.com/p/the-asian-century-has-begun-its-being
And this interview between Danny Haiphong and Pepe Escobar, on his return from the Shanghai Cooperation Organization's "Shanghai Spirit" gathering, discussing the present attitude of the Chinese people on Trump's tariffs:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vHtUMQ2cYV4