At the Danube Institute in Budapest, we examine the claim: Western Europe should surrender to Islam. I’ve been advocating for an honest discussion about this topic for years. I've stated before: The surrender of Europe is inevitable.
Drawing from history, we see that civilizations have faced moments where surrender or negotiation was the pragmatic choice to avoid catastrophic loss. The Byzantine Empire negotiated with the Ottoman Turks in the 15th century, though ultimately it fell. Surrender, while unpalatable, can be a strategic decision to preserve lives and maybe even some cultural artefacts. What remains is whether surrender happens on purpose or by default, with a deal, or in fire.
As of 2025, nobody is giving surrender to Islam serious consideration. In a few years, I predict the Overton window will shift from unthinkable to radical. This prediction is based on ongoing demographic changes in Europe. With declining birth rates among native Europeans and increasing immigration from Muslim-majority countries, the cultural and political landscape is evolving radically. This demographic shift will likely make discussions about Islam's role in Europe more mainstream, moving surrender from unthinkable to radical within a few years.
The Overton window stages are:
Policy
Popular
Sensible
Acceptable
Radical
Fringe
Unthinkable
And within 20 years, it will shift from radical to acceptable. But at the moment, we’re in unthinkable territory.
Keep reading with a 7-day free trial
Subscribe to Peter Boghossian to keep reading this post and get 7 days of free access to the full post archives.