Since this one involved suggestions from the audience and a claim focused on aliens, I'm going to suggest a claim to explore at a future Spectrum Street Epistemology.
"The problem with giving people the freedom to choose is that sometimes they make the wrong one." - Odo, Star Trek: Deep Space Nine
This Hugh Ross does not adequately explain his calculation, but seems to be treating all parameters as independent and therefore multiplying them together and applying a 'dependency factor' to compensate. Crucially, this dependency factor is, Ross admits, an estimate. Given that he hasn't provided any explanation to arrive at that estimate, it seems that Ross may have chosen a value which suits the mission of "Reasons to Believe".
Ultimately, the result is a guess.
Using his provided table of values, I calculate a lower bound probability of life as 1 in 10^374, but an upper bound of 9 in 10 (in the case where all of his parameters are depend upon being distance from a Seyfert galaxy). One can't be much more accurate without knowing how all of his parameters depend upon each other.
"Notes: Estimate of dependency and longevity factors are accounted for at the end of the list. References to relevant science research papers and books also follow the list."
The originators of the theory, Peter Ward and Donald Brownlee, explain to Astronomy why they think the development of complex life on other worlds is likely extraordinarily rare.
In this bonus interview footage from Science Uprising, astrophysicist Bijan Nemati engages in a wide-ranging discussion of the rarity of the Earth, the search for extra-terrestrial life, fine-tuning, the Big Bang, and lots more. Currently at the University of Alabama—Huntsville, Nemati spent much of his career as a scientist at NASA's famous Jet Propulsion Lab at Caltech.
Since this one involved suggestions from the audience and a claim focused on aliens, I'm going to suggest a claim to explore at a future Spectrum Street Epistemology.
"The problem with giving people the freedom to choose is that sometimes they make the wrong one." - Odo, Star Trek: Deep Space Nine
Haha! Extra credit!
It's one of my favourite quotes and has served me well in many conversations over the years.
Got Some REAL Bad News
Probability Estimate for Attaining the Necessary Characteristics for a Life Support Body
https://reasons.org/explore/publications/articles/probability-for-life-on-earth
© 2004 Reasons To Believe (update)
(Snip)
Probability for occurrence of all 322 parameters ≈ 10-388
(Snip)
Maximum possible number of life support bodies in universe ≈ 1022
(Snip)
Thus, less than 1 chance in 10282
Believe it or not, aliens are BY FAR our most recommended SSE topic.
SSE?
This Hugh Ross does not adequately explain his calculation, but seems to be treating all parameters as independent and therefore multiplying them together and applying a 'dependency factor' to compensate. Crucially, this dependency factor is, Ross admits, an estimate. Given that he hasn't provided any explanation to arrive at that estimate, it seems that Ross may have chosen a value which suits the mission of "Reasons to Believe".
Ultimately, the result is a guess.
Using his provided table of values, I calculate a lower bound probability of life as 1 in 10^374, but an upper bound of 9 in 10 (in the case where all of his parameters are depend upon being distance from a Seyfert galaxy). One can't be much more accurate without knowing how all of his parameters depend upon each other.
"Notes: Estimate of dependency and longevity factors are accounted for at the end of the list. References to relevant science research papers and books also follow the list."
____________________________________________________________________
Rare Earth hypothesis: Why we might really be alone in the universe
https://www.astronomy.com/science/rare-earth-hypothesis-why-we-might-really-be-alone-in-the-universe/
The originators of the theory, Peter Ward and Donald Brownlee, explain to Astronomy why they think the development of complex life on other worlds is likely extraordinarily rare.
Doug Adler
May 18, 2023
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Bijan Nemati: Rare Earth - Science Uprising Expert Interview
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vn3YpOWCrc4&t=348s
Jun 29, 2019
In this bonus interview footage from Science Uprising, astrophysicist Bijan Nemati engages in a wide-ranging discussion of the rarity of the Earth, the search for extra-terrestrial life, fine-tuning, the Big Bang, and lots more. Currently at the University of Alabama—Huntsville, Nemati spent much of his career as a scientist at NASA's famous Jet Propulsion Lab at Caltech.
"Why we might be alone" Public Lecture by Prof David Kipping
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zcInt58juL4&t=56s
Dec 8, 2022
Public Lecture from Nov 18th 2022 held at Columbia University.
Sorry But it looks like
There Ain't Nobody here but us chickens
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4hH77m_rZdA