10 Comments
User's avatar
Andrew Heard's avatar

Since this one involved suggestions from the audience and a claim focused on aliens, I'm going to suggest a claim to explore at a future Spectrum Street Epistemology.

"The problem with giving people the freedom to choose is that sometimes they make the wrong one." - Odo, Star Trek: Deep Space Nine

Expand full comment
Peter Boghossian's avatar

Haha! Extra credit!

Expand full comment
Andrew Heard's avatar

It's one of my favourite quotes and has served me well in many conversations over the years.

Expand full comment
Steve's avatar

Got Some REAL Bad News

Probability Estimate for Attaining the Necessary Characteristics for a Life Support Body

https://reasons.org/explore/publications/articles/probability-for-life-on-earth

© 2004 Reasons To Believe (update)

(Snip)

Probability for occurrence of all 322 parameters ≈ 10-388

(Snip)

Maximum possible number of life support bodies in universe ≈ 1022

(Snip)

Thus, less than 1 chance in 10282

Expand full comment
Peter Boghossian's avatar

Believe it or not, aliens are BY FAR our most recommended SSE topic.

Expand full comment
Steve's avatar

SSE?

Expand full comment
Finlay's avatar

This Hugh Ross does not adequately explain his calculation, but seems to be treating all parameters as independent and therefore multiplying them together and applying a 'dependency factor' to compensate. Crucially, this dependency factor is, Ross admits, an estimate. Given that he hasn't provided any explanation to arrive at that estimate, it seems that Ross may have chosen a value which suits the mission of "Reasons to Believe".

Ultimately, the result is a guess.

Using his provided table of values, I calculate a lower bound probability of life as 1 in 10^374, but an upper bound of 9 in 10 (in the case where all of his parameters are depend upon being distance from a Seyfert galaxy). One can't be much more accurate without knowing how all of his parameters depend upon each other.

Expand full comment
Steve's avatar

"Notes: Estimate of dependency and longevity factors are accounted for at the end of the list. References to relevant science research papers and books also follow the list."

____________________________________________________________________

Rare Earth hypothesis: Why we might really be alone in the universe

https://www.astronomy.com/science/rare-earth-hypothesis-why-we-might-really-be-alone-in-the-universe/

The originators of the theory, Peter Ward and Donald Brownlee, explain to Astronomy why they think the development of complex life on other worlds is likely extraordinarily rare.

Doug Adler

May 18, 2023

______________________________________________________

Bijan Nemati: Rare Earth - Science Uprising Expert Interview

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vn3YpOWCrc4&t=348s

Jun 29, 2019

In this bonus interview footage from Science Uprising, astrophysicist Bijan Nemati engages in a wide-ranging discussion of the rarity of the Earth, the search for extra-terrestrial life, fine-tuning, the Big Bang, and lots more. Currently at the University of Alabama—Huntsville, Nemati spent much of his career as a scientist at NASA's famous Jet Propulsion Lab at Caltech.

Expand full comment
Steve's avatar

"Why we might be alone" Public Lecture by Prof David Kipping

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zcInt58juL4&t=56s

Dec 8, 2022

Public Lecture from Nov 18th 2022 held at Columbia University.

Expand full comment
Steve's avatar

Sorry But it looks like

There Ain't Nobody here but us chickens

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4hH77m_rZdA

Expand full comment